IMF Raises Forecast for China’s Economic Growth in 2025

On July 29,the international monetary Fund（IMF）released an update to its Word Economic Outlook report.It now expects the global economy to grow by 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, up by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points  from its April forecast.

The IMF says this more positive outlook is due to better-than-expected global trade, lower than planned U.S. tariffs, easier global financial conditions, and stronger government spending in some major economies.

Among all the countries, China saw the biggest upward revision. The IMF raised its forecast for China's 2025 growth by 0.8 percentage points. This adjustment reflects stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year, as well as a major drop in U.S. China tariffs. The IMF also raised its forecast for China's growth in 2026 by 0.2 points.

According to the IMF, China’s exports played a key role rising sales to global markets made up for the drop in exports to the U.S. Meanwhile, government policies supporting consumer spending also helped boost the economy.

The IMF suggests that countries should reduce uncertainty by creating clear and transparent trade policies. It also advises central banks to carefully adjust interest rates based on their own national situations, in order to keep inflation and financial systems stable amid ongoing trade tensions.