North American Containerboard Market Shows Signs of Recovery

The North American containerboard market is showing early signs of improvement, following months of uncertainty and demand fluctuations. While short-term challenges remain, recent data and industry shifts suggest a more stable and promising outlook.

According to Fastmarkets RISI, June prices and demand remained relatively flat compared to May, but with slightly improved sentiment. However, a Bank of America survey found that 61% of corrugated box producers expect prices to decline soon — a significant rise from just 11% in March.

Despite this short-term caution, analysts point to a wave of mill closures — including facilities from Georgia-Pacific, International Paper, and Smurfit Kappa — amounting to a 5.5% capacity reduction across North America. This supply-side tightening, combined with improved operational strategies, is seen as a turning point for the industry.

Michael Roxland of Truist Securities believes the market is entering a "golden era," driven by supply-demand rebalancing and stronger cost discipline across major players. Leadership changes in key firms have also led to renewed focus on profitability and long-term sustainability.

While near-term pricing pressure may persist, the outlook for demand has become more optimistic. In June, only 12% of surveyed producers expected demand to decline in the next 6–12 months — down from 30% in March.

With external risks like tariffs and global supply chain pressures still on the radar, the containerboard market appears to be stabilizing, fueled by structural changes and improving fundamentals.